Let’s start by contemplating two distilled quotes about Scotland’s 2016 #NationalSurvey
‘Overwhelming’ Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland 1.12.2016
‘Highly effective’ Alex Salmond, Former First Minster of Scotland
Let’s now drill back and out from Alex Salmond’s quote, to the original full quote.
‘It’s been a highly effective exercise … the views of people expressed to canvassers will be of enormous benefit in future political events’ Alex Salmond, Former First Minster of Scotland
Pause and think. Why EXACTLY will those views be of enormous benefit? We’ll tell you why in a minute.
One further quote first, this one is from the CE of the current celebrity in the world of political analytics, Cambridge Analytica, who advised Donald Trump’s team ahead of the US Presidential election.
‘A phenomenal achievement’ Alexander Nix, CE Cambridge Analytica
Again, drill it back out to the full quote.
Scotland’s #NationalSurvey: ‘A phenomenal achievement, and that data is going to be incredibly valuable to driving their campaign’
Alexander Nix, CE of Cambridge Analytica
If you are reading this and still thinking it is all about the bass, LOL it isn’t. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE DATA!!!
More specifically in this case, THE YESDATA, and SOFTNoDATA.
Two weeks prior to #NationalSurvey ending, Scotland was informed by the SNP that 1,673,980 people had already taken part.
When the #NationalSurvey ended, Scotland was informed by the SNP that they ‘had hoped for two million responses … and we’ve met that target’. In such an online format as was used, responses does not necessarily equate to people.
Nevertheless, we certainly proceed under an impression that there have been a ballpark of 2M or more participants, as this would certainly equate to what was seen on social media in the final 2 weeks after we were all informed that 1,673, 989 people had taken part.
Final 2 weeks of #NationalSurvey Twitter analytics demonstrate an extreme YES focus, certainly above 90% YES. Twitter of course in these circumstances is THE digital vanguard.
Entire swathes of 2014 No voters were reluctant to participate, as the survey was very obviously hosted by the SNP.
And the SNP has had the physical assistance of a 124,000 membership, and a YES-centric activist start point.
How many Tweets did you see from No voters promoting No within the survey. We saw a mere handful.
Following June 2016’s Brexit result Scotland saw a specific cultural occurrence, a 48 hr window of social media outrage. A ScotPulse poll for The Sunday Post then placed YES on the front page at 59%, but after ‘Don’t Know’s were extrapolated, this accelerated YES to 65%, a clear banding of digital acceleration 11% – 13% above ‘routine polling’. And the #NationalSurvey was of course digitalised.
If #NationalSurvey was ‘only’ 60 / 40 – the SNP now have the YESDATA for 1,200,000 YESSERS. They also have the SOFTNoData on heavens knows how many hundreds of thousands of individuals who could perhaps be easily persuaded to switch to YES, as the online survey was clearly very cleverly designed by the SNP, to establish that information.
What DATA does the No side possess? We can’t seem to find any actual figures, but we understand the Scottish Tory Party digitalised membership is less than 20,000. And with Holyrood 2016 500,000 Tory voters at a mere 11.3% of the electorate, if they were to run a #NationalSurvey, we suggest it would be a somewhat arduous task, to galvanise those 500,000 participants, let alone 2M. Especially if Tories already know we’re at Numbers Game Over.
Think about it. As the #NationalSurvey was so successful, driven by digital encouragement initiated at source to 124,000 Activists, what would happen if that amount was increased twelve fold? And then the rest? Well, THAT is what has happened. The SNP now have THAT DATABASE. It is the biggest Political Database ever seen before in Scotland. And, it is fully Digitalised, and aligned to work for YES for Independence.
The digital analytics for #NationalSurvey were mind-blowing, but when applied to either a future conventional or digital referendum, the force of digital energy has capability to mass at more than 1200% above that of the #NationalSurvey. That takes mind-blowing to where exactly? We don’t have the words.
As the #NationalSurvey demonstrated a digitalised volcano meeting a digitalised tornado, multiply the experience of that ‘overwhelming’ mass of energy fifteen-fold as a start point.
The #NationalSurvey was in itself a digital revolution, which was always going to be impossible until it became inevitable. There were however massively missed opportunities, which are detailed elsewhere on our wordpress. Most crucially, the SNP didn’t even deploy the digital might at their fingertips, failing on the weekend prior to the survey’s conclusion, to put out ‘a digitalised call to action en masse’, but as we’ve seen time and time again, the SNP don’t make many mistakes twice. Don’t think for a minute that they will fail to digitally deploy in full, and at more than 1200%, when really required to do so.
When considering Facebook specifically, the capability which lies ahead for the YES side, is structured in a way which even the SNP haven’t even yet touched upon.
If a National Online Yes Register is established by the SNP, and accelerated on Facebook, YES can now use the YESDATA to organically build the YES database. And that aspect only scratches the surface of the real capability.
SCOTLAND’S MASSIVE DIGITAL
The engine of Scotland’s YES campaign now has capability to accelerate within the YES digital team, if including a mix of programmers, web developers, network engineers, data scientists, graphic artists, ad copywriters, and media buyers.
There’s nothing magical about it. These strategies already exist commercially.
Digital YES can firstly become the biggest source of campaign funding, which can then be invested on Facebook advertising.
Here’s how it works:
- Upload the names and email addresses of known #NationalSurvey YESSERS and Soft No’s into the Facebook advertising platform.
- Use Facebook’s ‘Custom Audiences from Customer Lists, and match these YESSERS and Soft No’s with their virtual Facebook profiles.
- With Facebook’s ‘Audience Targeting Options’ feature, ads can be targeted to people based on their Facebook activity, or ‘location and demographics like age, gender and interests. You can even target your ad to people based on what they do off of Facebook’.
- Expand the pool of targeted Facebook users using ‘Lookalike Audiences’, a powerful data tool that automatically finds other people on Facebook with ‘common qualities’ that ‘look like’ known YES supporters.
- Finally, use Facebook’s ‘Brand Lift’ survey capabilities to measure the success of the ads.
YES can also deploy software to optimize the design and messaging of YES Facebook ads. YES can ‘campaign spray’ ads at Facebook users, which will lead to tens of thousands of different webpages, each micro-targeted at a different segment of voters’. The YES digital team can built and generate tend of thousands of distinct pieces of creative content.
There is of course another further strategy, which not surprisingly, is based on the opposite, negative. Instead of expanding the YES electorate, YES Digital can shrink the No electorate, using existing techniques for digitalised voter reversibility.
SCOTLAND’S INDEPENDENCE certainly now appears to be in the hands of the SNP.
Time will of course tell.
All best wishes,
FURTHER UPDATE AS AT 12TH MAY 2017
The ICO Information Commissioner’s Office has by all accounts called all UK political parties to a meeting at their HQ this week. New updated guidelines have been released, in relation to #BIGDATA and the use of social media for political campaigning. It is seemingly the case that political parties are now banned from using social media to target voters, unless voters have provided their consent.
Here’s a link for all the related downloads:
Here’s a link to footage on Scotland’s #NationalSurvey – added online Dec 4th 2016. It was created to show a few Twitter pals in Catalonia, Quebec, Ireland and Wales. All the best